Tuam Tshoj International Finance Securities nyuam qhuav tshaj tawm tias lub ntiaj tebLub Tshuab Txais Teeb Pom Kev Zoo kev ua lag luam kwv yees tias yuav ncav cuag ntau dua USD 10 billion los ntawm xyoo 2021, nrog rau kev ua lag luam hauv tsev rau ntau dua 50 feem pua. Xyoo 2022, kev xa tawm ntawm 400GLub Tshuab Txais Teeb Pom Kev Zoos ntawm qhov loj thiab kev nce sai ntawm qhov ntim ntawm 800GLub Tshuab Txais Teeb Pom Kev Zoos xav tau, nrog rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov rau cov khoom siv optical chip ceev. Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li Omdia, qhov chaw ua lag luam rau cov chips optical siv hauv 25G thiab siab dua tus nqiLub Tshuab Txais Teeb Pom Kev Zoos tau teem caij kom nce ntxiv ntawm USD 1.356 billion hauv xyoo 2019 mus rau USD 4.340 billion hauv xyoo 2025, nrog rau kev kwv yees tus nqi loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 21.40 feem pua.
Saib ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov rau cov chips optical los ntawm kev kwv yees ntawmLub Tshuab Txais Teeb Pom Kev Zoo kev lag luam.
LightCounting kwv yees tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb optical transceiver yuav loj hlob 4.34% hauv xyoo 2023, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 11.43% txij li xyoo 2024 txog 2027.
Raws li qhov credit ntawm CICC, qhov loj ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov chips optical rau kev sib txuas lus optical hauv xyoo 2021 yuav yog 14.67 billion yuan. Qhov loj ntawm kev lag luam ntawm 2.5G, 10G, 25G thiab siab dua optical chips yog 1.167 billion yuan, 2.748 billion yuan, thiab 10.755 billion yuan feem. Omdia kwv yees tias qhov loj ntawm kev lag luam tag nrho ntawm cov chips optical siv rau 25G thiab siab dua optical modules hauv xyoo 2021 yuav yog 1.913 billion US dollars, lossis kwv yees li 13 billion yuan.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv no, kwv yees tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kev sib txuas lus optical chip yuav suav txog 18-20% ntawm kev lag luam optical module hauv xyoo 2021. Qhov loj me ntawm kev lag luam optical chip sib xws yog xam raws li 18% ntawm kev lag luam optical module qis thiab 20% ntawm kev lag luam siab.
Tam sim no, feem ntau ntawm cov khoom siv optical transceivers nrog cov qauv khoom laus siv cov qauv plaub-channel ntawm PSM4 lossis CWDM4. Cov chips optical ntawm 10G thiab qis dua kwv yees li sib xws rau 1G, 10G, thiab 40G optical modules. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees ntawm LightCounting, kev xa khoom ntawm 1G, 10G, thiab 40G digital kev sib txuas lus optical modules yuav pib poob qis txij li xyoo 2023, ua rau kev lag luam loj hlob los ntawm 614 lab daus las Asmeskas hauv xyoo 2022 mus rau 150 lab daus las Asmeskas hauv xyoo 2027. Siv 18% ua qhov sib piv, qhov loj me ntawm kev lag luam optical chip sib xws yuav poob qis los ntawm US $ 111 lab hauv xyoo 2022 mus rau US $ 27 lab hauv xyoo 2027.
Lub tsev khaws ntaub ntawv network architecture dhau qhov qub 10G/40G CLOS system. Feem ntau cov tuam txhab hauv internet hauv tsev ua haujlwm ntawm 25G/100G CLOS architecture, thaum cov tuam txhab North American tab tom hloov mus rau 100G/400G CLOS thiab 800G network architectures siab dua. Cov high-speed digital optical modules hauv qhov ntau ntawm 100G-800G feem ntau siv DFB thiab EML laser chips, thiab tus nqi baud yog 25G, 53G, 56G. Feem ntau ntawm 800G optical module khoom tam sim no ntawm kev ua lag luam txais yuav 8 * 100G architecture thiab siv yim 56G EML PAM4 optical chips.
Cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees ntawm LightCounting qhia tau hais tias kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv optical modules ua haujlwm ntawm 25G, 100G, 400G thiab 800G yuav txuas ntxiv loj hlob txij li xyoo 2023 txog 2027. Thaum lub sijhawm no, qhov loj ntawm kev ua lag luam yuav nce ntxiv los ntawm USD 4.450 billion mus rau USD 5 billion hauv xyoo 2022. Nws yuav yog US $ 7.269 billion hauv xyoo 2027, uas yog qhov loj hlob txhua xyoo 5 xyoos ntawm 10.31%. Qhov loj ntawm kev ua lag luam optical chip sib xws kuj tseem yuav loj hlob los ntawm US $ 890 lab mus rau US $ 1.453 billion.
Wirelesskev thauj mus los tom qab Kev thov 10G ruaj khov, kev thov 25G tab tom loj hlob
Txij li thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim kho 5G tau mus txog qhov tseem ceeb, nrog rau 2.287 lab lub chaw nres tsheb thoob plaws lub tebchaws. Txawm hais tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim kho chaw nres tsheb tau qeeb qeeb, cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias nrog kev txhim kho tas mus li ntawm 5G nkag mus thiab kev nplua nuj ntawm cov ntawv thov, qhov kev thov rau kev nthuav dav ntawm wireless midhaul thiab backhaul networks tab tom nce siab. Txawm hais tias kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb 10G thiab 25G optical module tau poob qis los ntawm 2022 txog 2027, nws xav tias qhov loj me ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm wireless fronthaul optical modules yuav txhim kho los ntawm 2026, thaum optical modules saum toj no 50G yuav pib xa mus rau hauv cov pawg. Cov kws tshaj lij hauv kev lag luam ntseeg tias 50G thiab 100G optical modules yuav tsis tsav lub lag luam 5G fronthaul rov qab los txog rau xyoo 2026, thaum 25G thiab siab dua 5G fronthaul optical modules yuav ruaj khov ntawm $ 420 lab ntawm xyoo 2023 thiab 2025. Raws li qhov kev thov rau 5G tsheb khiav txuas ntxiv mus, cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm 5G mid-haul thiab 10G optical transceivers yuav nce ntxiv los ntawm 2.1 lab units hauv xyoo 2022 mus rau 3.06 lab units hauv xyoo 2027, nrog rau tsib xyoos CAGR ntawm 7.68%. Qhov kev thov ua lag luam loj hlob yuav tsum ua kom ruaj khov 10G thiab qis dua optical module kev ua lag luam ntawm $ 90 lab, thiab kev ua lag luam optical chip sib xws kwv yees li ntawm $ 18.1 lab. Hauv kev lag luam nruab nrab thiab rov qab, qhov kev thov rau 25G, 100G, thiab 200G optical modules yuav loj hlob sai txij li xyoo 2023, thiab qhov loj ntawm kev lag luam ntawm 25G thiab siab dua nruab nrab thiab rov qab yuav nce ntxiv los ntawm US $ 103 lab hauv xyoo 2022 mus rau US $ 171 lab hauv xyoo 2027. Tus nqi loj hlob txhua xyoo yog 10.73%. Kev lag luam optical chip sib xws kuj tseem yuav nthuav dav los ntawm kwv yees li $ 21 lab mus rau $ 34 lab.
Kev nkag mus rau hauv Wired 10G PON qhov kev thov txuas ntxiv mus loj hlob
Tuam Tshoj Txoj Kev Npaj Tsib Xyoo Thib 14 rau kev lag luam infocomm teeb tsa cov hom phiaj loj rau lub teb chaws cov khoom siv digital. Thaum lub sijhawm no, tsoomfwv npaj yuav xa ib lub network fiber optic gigabit kom nrawm dua kev tsim kho "gigabit nroog" thiab nthuav dav kev pabcuam ntawm gigabit networks thoob plaws lub tebchaws. Thaum kawg ntawm xyoo 2022, peb lub tuam txhab kev sib txuas lus tseem ceeb xav tias tag nrho cov neeg siv internet broadband yuav ncav cuag 590 lab. Ntawm lawv, tus nqi nkag mus ntawm 100Mbps thiab siab dua yog 554 lab, nce ntawm 55.13 lab dhau xyoo dhau los. Tib lub sijhawm, tus lej ntawm cov neeg siv nkag mus nrog tus nqi ntawm 1000 Mbps thiab siab dua tau ncav cuag 917.5 lab, nce ntawm 57.16 lab dhau xyoo dhau los. Txawm hais tias muaj cov kev nce qib no, tseem muaj chaw rau kev txhim kho, nrog rau Gigabit subscriber nkag mus yuav tsuas yog 15.6% thaum kawg ntawm xyoo 2022. Txog qhov kawg no, tsoomfwv tab tom txhawb kev tsim kho ntawm 10G-PON networks hauv cov nroog thiab thaj chaw tseem ceeb. lub nroog, tsom mus rau kev nthuav dav kev pabcuam. Txog rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, tus lej ntawm 10G PON chaw nres nkoj nrog Gigabit network kev pabcuam muaj peev xwm yuav ncav cuag 15.23 lab, npog ntau dua 500 lab tsev neeg thoob plaws lub tebchaws. Qhov no ua rau Tuam Tshoj lub network gigabit thiab qib kev pabcuam ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb. Saib rau pem hauv ntej, kev lag luam PON yuav txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab LightCounting kwv yees tias kev xa khoom ntawmPONCov khoom siv optical transceivers qis dua 10G yuav poob qis txij li xyoo 2022. Qhov sib txawv, 10G PON kev xa khoom yuav loj hlob sai, ncav cuag 26.9 lab units hauv xyoo 2022 thiab 73 lab units hauv xyoo 2027, nrog rau tsib xyoos CAGR ntawm 22.07%. Txawm hais tias qhov loj me ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm 10G optical modules yuav poob qis los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2022, kev ua lag luam optical chip sib xws kuj yuav poob qis los ntawm US $ 141.4 lab mus rau US $ 57 lab. Saib rau pem hauv ntej, 25G PON thiab 50G PON yuav ua tiav kev xa khoom me me hauv xyoo 2024, ua raws li kev xa khoom loj dua hauv xyoo tom ntej. Nws kwv yees tias qhov loj me ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm 25G thiab siab dua PON optical modules yuav tshaj 200 lab US las hauv xyoo 2025, thiab kev ua lag luam optical chip sib xws yuav ncav cuag 40 lab US las. Zuag qhia tag nrho, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv digital yuav txuas ntxiv loj hlob thiab txhim kho hauv xyoo tom ntej.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Peb Hlis-22-2023