Tuam Tshoj International Finance Securities tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm tias thoob ntiaj tebOptical Transceiver Kev ua lag luam tau kwv yees kom ncav cuag ntau dua $ 10 billion los ntawm 2021, nrog rau kev lag luam hauv tsev suav txog ntau dua 50 feem pua. Hauv 2022, kev xa tawm ntawm 400GOptical Transceivers ntawm qhov loj me thiab nce nrawm ntawm qhov ntim ntawm 800GOptical Transceivers xav tau, nrog rau kev loj hlob ntxiv hauv kev thov rau cov khoom siv kho qhov muag nti. Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li Omdia, qhov chaw ua lag luam rau cov khoom siv kho qhov muag siv hauv 25G thiab siab dua tus nqiOptical Transceivers tau teem kom nce los ntawm USD 1.356 nphom hauv 2019 txog $ 4.340 nphom hauv 2025, nrog kev kwv yees kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 21.40 feem pua.
Saib ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov rau optical chips los ntawm kev kwv yees ntawm covOptical Transceiver kev lag luam.
LightCounting kwv yees tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb optical transceiver yuav loj hlob los ntawm 4.34% hauv 2023, nrog kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 11.43% los ntawm 2024 txog 2027.
Raws li qhov credit ntawm CICC, lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam loj ntawm cov khoom siv kho qhov muag rau kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag hauv 2021 yuav tsum yog 14.67 billion yuan. Kev lag luam loj ntawm 2.5G, 10G, 25G thiab saum toj no optical chips yog 1.167 billion yuan, 2.748 billion yuan, thiab 10.755 billion yuan feem. Omdia kwv yees tias tag nrho cov lag luam loj ntawm cov khoom siv kho qhov muag siv rau 25G thiab saum toj no optical modules hauv 2021 yuav yog 1.913 billion US dollars, los yog txog 13 billion yuan.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv no, nws tau kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag nti lag luam yuav suav txog 18-20% ntawm kev lag luam kho qhov muag hauv xyoo 2021. Qhov sib thooj optical chip lag luam loj yog xam raws li 18% ntawm cov khoom siv kho qhov muag qis. thiab 20% ntawm cov lag luam high-end.
Tam sim no, feem ntau ntawm optical transceivers nrog cov khoom lag luam paub tab txais yuav plaub-channel qauv ntawm PSM4 lossis CWDM4. Optical chips ntawm 10G thiab qis dua roughly sib haum mus rau 1G, 10G, thiab 40G optical modules. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees ntawm LightCounting, kev xa khoom ntawm 1G, 10G, thiab 40G digital kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag modules yuav pib poob qis los ntawm 2023, ua rau poob qis hauv kev lag luam loj los ntawm 614 lab US las hauv 2022 txog 150 lab US las hauv 2027. Noj 18% raws li qhov kev faib ua feem, qhov sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv kho qhov muag nti ua lag luam yuav tsum poob los ntawm US $ 111 lab hauv 2022 txog US $ 27 lab hauv 2027.
Cov ntaub ntawv chaw network architecture tshaj qhov qub 10G / 40G CLOS system. Feem ntau cov tuam txhab hauv Is Taws Nem ua haujlwm ntawm 25G / 100G CLOS architecture, thaum North American tuam txhab tau hloov mus rau ntau dua 100G / 400G CLOS thiab 800G network architectures. Lub high-speed digital optical modules nyob rau hauv thaj tsam ntawm 100G-800G tsuas yog siv DFB thiab EML laser chips, thiab tus nqi baud yog 25G, 53G, 56G. Feem ntau ntawm 800G optical module khoom tam sim no nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam txais 8 * 100G architecture thiab siv yim 56G EML PAM4 optical chips.
LightCounting cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees qhia tau hais tias kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv kho qhov muag ua haujlwm ntawm 25G, 100G, 400G thiab 800G yuav nce ntxiv los ntawm 2023 txog 2027. Lub sijhawm no, kev lag luam loj yuav tsum nce los ntawm USD 4.450 billion mus rau USD 5 billion hauv 2022. Nws yuav yog US $ 7.269 nphom hauv 2027, qhov zoo tshaj plaws 5-xyoo kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 10.31%. Qhov sib thooj optical nti lag luam loj kuj tseem xav tias yuav loj hlob los ntawm US $ 890 lab rau US $ 1.453 billion.
Wirelessrov qab 10G thov tau ruaj khov, 25G thov tau loj hlob
Raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim kho 5G tau mus txog qhov tseem ceeb, nrog 2.287 lab lub hauv paus chaw nres tsheb xa mus thoob tebchaws. Txawm hais tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb hauv paus tau qeeb, cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias nrog kev txhim kho txuas ntxiv ntawm 5G nkag mus thiab kev txhim kho ntawm cov ntawv thov, qhov kev thov rau kev nthuav dav ntawm wireless midhaul thiab backhaul tes hauj lwm tau nce. Txawm hais tias lub ntiaj teb no 10G thiab 25G optical modules xa khoom tau poob qis los ntawm 2022 txog 2027, nws xav tias kev lag luam loj ntawm wireless fronthaul optical modules yuav txhim kho los ntawm 2026, thaum optical modules saum 50G yuav pib xa mus rau hauv cov khoom siv. Cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntseeg tias 50G thiab 100G optical modules yuav tsis tsav qhov rov qab los ntawm 5G fronthaul kev ua lag luam kom txog rau thaum 2026, thaum 25G thiab siab dua 5G fronthaul optical modules xav kom ruaj khov ntawm $ 420 lab ntawm 2023 thiab 2025. Raws li qhov kev thov rau 5G tsheb mus txuas ntxiv mus. loj hlob, kev xa khoom ntawm 5G mid-haul thiab 10G optical transceivers xav tias yuav nce los ntawm 2.1 lab units hauv 2022 txog 3.06 lab units hauv 2027, nrog rau tsib xyoos CAGR ntawm 7.68%. Kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam xav tau kom ruaj khov rau 10G thiab qis dua kev lag luam kho qhov muag ntawm $ 90 lab, thiab cov khoom siv kho qhov muag tau kwv yees kwv yees li ntawm $ 18.1 lab. Hauv kev lag luam nruab nrab thiab rov qab, qhov kev thov rau 25G, 100G, thiab 200G optical modules yuav tsum muaj kev loj hlob sai los ntawm 2023, thiab kev lag luam loj ntawm 25G thiab siab dua nruab nrab thiab backhaul optical modules yuav tsum nce los ntawm US $ 103 lab hauv 2022. mus txog US $ 171 lab hauv 2027. Qhov kev loj hlob txhua xyoo yog 10.73%. Kev lag luam sib thooj optical nti kuj tseem xav tias yuav nthuav dav li ntawm $ 21 lab txog $ 34 lab.
Wired nkag 10G PON thov txuas ntxiv mus
Tuam Tshoj 14th Tsib Xyoo Npaj rau kev lag luam infocomm teeb tsa lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb rau lub teb chaws cov txheej txheem digital. Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, tsoomfwv npaj yuav siv lub gigabit fiber optic network txhawm rau txhawm rau txhim kho "gigabit nroog" thiab nthuav dav cov kev pabcuam gigabit network thoob plaws tebchaws. Thaum kawg ntawm 2022, peb lub tuam txhab kev sib txuas lus yooj yim cia siab tias tag nrho cov neeg siv Internet broadband ruaj khov kom ncav cuag 590 lab. Ntawm lawv, tus nqi nkag ntawm 100Mbps thiab siab dua yog 554 lab, nce ntawm 55.13 lab xyoo dhau los. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tus naj npawb ntawm kev nkag mus rau cov neeg siv nrog tus nqi ntawm 1000 Mbps thiab siab dua tau mus txog 917.5 lab, nce ntawm 57.16 lab nyob rau xyoo dhau los. Txawm hais tias qhov kev nce qib no, tseem muaj chaw rau kev txhim kho, nrog rau Gigabit cov neeg siv nkag mus yuav tsum tsuas yog 15.6% thaum kawg ntawm 2022. Txog rau qhov kawg no, tsoomfwv tau txhawb nqa kev tsim kho 10G-PON network hauv nroog thiab thaj chaw tseem ceeb. lub nroog, tsom mus rau kev nthuav dav. Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, tus naj npawb ntawm 10G PON cov chaw nres nkoj nrog Gigabit network kev pabcuam yuav ncav cuag 15.23 lab, suav nrog ntau dua 500 lab tsev neeg thoob plaws tebchaws. Qhov no ua rau Tuam Tshoj tus gigabit network scale thiab kev pab them nqi ntawm cov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no. Saib tom ntej, PON kev lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab LightCounting kwv yees tias cov khoom xa tuaj ntawmPONoptical transceivers qis dua 10G yuav poob qis txij li xyoo 2022. Qhov sib txawv, 10G PON kev xa khoom yuav tsum loj hlob sai, ncav cuag 26.9 lab units hauv 2022 thiab 73 lab units hauv 2027, nrog rau tsib xyoos CAGR ntawm 22.07%. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam loj ntawm 10G optical modules yuav poob qis los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2022, kev lag luam sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv kho qhov muag kuj tseem yuav poob ntawm US $ 141.4 lab rau US $ 57 lab. Saib ua ntej, 25G PON thiab 50G PON xav tias yuav ua tiav kev xa tawm me me hauv xyoo 2024, ua raws li kev xa tawm loj dua hauv xyoo tom ntej. Nws tau kwv yees tias kev lag luam loj ntawm 25G thiab saum toj no PON optical modules yuav tshaj 200 lab US las hauv 2025, thiab cov lag luam sib xws optical chip yuav ncav cuag 40 lab US las. Zuag qhia tag nrho, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam digital yuav txuas ntxiv loj hlob thiab txhim kho nyob rau xyoo tom ntej.
Post lub sij hawm: Mar-22-2023